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Part 1: The Normal Curve
๐ The Normal Distribution
Part 1 of 7 โ Bell Curves and the Empirical Rule
The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is the most important distribution in statistics. It is:
- Symmetric and bell-shaped
- Described by two parameters: mean ฮผ and standard deviation ฯ
- Notation: XโผN(ฮผ,ฯ)
The Empirical Rule (68-95-99.7)
For any normal distribution:
| Range | Percentage |
|---|
| ฮผยฑ1ฯ | 68% of data |
| ฮผยฑ2ฯ | 95% of data |
| ฮผ |
Example: IQ scores follow N(100,15)
- 68% of scores between 100ยฑ15=[85,115]
- 95% between 100ยฑ30=[70,130]
- 99.7% between
๐ The Empirical Rule gives a quick estimate for normal data. For exact probabilities, use z-scores.
Normal Distribution Check ๐ฏ
Empirical Rule Calculations ๐งฎ
Adult male heights follow N(70,3) inches.
1) What percentage of men are between 67 and 73 inches tall?
2) What percentage are shorter than 64 inches? (Hint: 64 = 70 โ 2(3))
3) Between what two heights do the middle 99.7% of men fall? Give the upper bound.
Part 2: Z-Scores
๐ Z-Scores and the Standard Normal
Part 2 of 7 โ Standardizing Values
The Z-Score Formula
A z-score tells you how many standard deviations a value is from the mean:
z=ฯxโฮผโ
Part 3: Normal Calculations
๐ข Normal Probability Calculations
Part 3 of 7 โ Finding Areas and Percentiles
Forward Problems: X โ Z โ Probability
Given a value x, find the probability:
- Compute z=ฯxโฮผโ
Part 4: Assessing Normality
๐ Assessing Normality
Part 4 of 7 โ Is the Data Normal?
Why Check Normality?
Many statistical procedures assume the data comes from a normal distribution. Before applying them:
- Check with a histogram โ should be roughly bell-shaped
- Use a normal probability plot (Q-Q plot) โ points should follow a straight line
- Apply the Empirical Rule โ about 68/95/99.7% should fall within 1/2/3 SDs
Normal Probability Plot (Q-Q Plot)
| Pattern | Interpretation |
|---|
| Points follow a straight line | Data is approximately normal |
| Points curve up at both ends | Data has heavier tails (leptokurtic) |
| S-shaped curve | Data is skewed |
| Points curve down at both ends | Data has lighter tails (platykurtic) |
๐ No real data is perfectly normal. We look for "close enough" โ roughly symmetric with no extreme outliers.
Normality Assessment ๐ฏ
Part 5: Combining Normal RVs
โ Combining Normal Random Variables
Part 5 of 7 โ Sums, Differences, and Linear Transformations
Linear Transformations
If XโผN(ฮผ,ฯ) and Y=a+bX, then:
Part 6: Problem-Solving Workshop
๐ ๏ธ Normal Distribution Workshop
Part 6 of 7 โ Comprehensive Practice
Strategy for Normal Distribution Problems
- Identify ฮผ and ฯ from the problem
- Sketch the curve and shade the desired region
- Standardize using z=(xโฮผ)
Part 7: Review & Applications
๐ Normal Distribution Review
Part 7 of 7 โ Summary and Applications
Key Formulas
| Formula | When to Use |
|---|
| z=ฯxโฮผโ | Convert any value to standard normal |
|
ยฑ
3ฯ
100ยฑ45=[55,145]
z=0
| z=1 | One SD above the mean |
| z=โ2 | Two SDs below the mean |
The Standard Normal Distribution
When we standardize: ZโผN(0,1)
This allows us to use one table (or calculator) for all normal distributions.
Example: Heights โผN(70,3). A person is 76 inches tall.
z=376โ70โ=2
They are 2 standard deviations above the mean.
Using the Z-Table
The z-table gives P(Zโคz) โ the area to the left of z.
| To Find | Method |
|---|
| P(Zโคz) | Read directly from table |
| P(Zโฅz) | 1โP(Zโคz) |
| P(aโคZโคb) | P(Zโคb)โP(Z |
๐ Always sketch the normal curve, shade the region, then calculate.
Z-Score Calculations ๐งฎ
ACT scores follow N(21,5).
1) Find the z-score for a student who scored 31. (Give as a whole number)
2) Find the z-score for a student who scored 16.
3) A student has z=โ0.4. What was their ACT score?
Look up P(Zโคz) in the z-table Adjust for the direction (left tail, right tail, between)Example: Scores โผN(500,100). Find P(X>650).
- z=100650โ500โ=1.5
- P(Zโค1.5)=0.9332
- P(X>650)=1โ0.9332=0.0668=6.68%
Backward Problems: Probability โ Z โ X
Given a percentile, find the value:
- Find the z-score from the table that matches the given probability
- Solve for x=ฮผ+zฯ
Example: What score is at the 90th percentile if ฮผ=500,ฯ=100?
- 90th percentile โ z=1.28 (from table: P(Zโค1.28)=0.8997โ0.90)
- x=500+1.28(100)=628
๐ "Top 10%" = 90th percentile. "Bottom 25%" = 25th percentile.
Finding Percentiles ๐งฎ
Baby weights at birth follow N(7.5,1.2) lbs.
1) What z-score corresponds to a baby weighing 9.9 lbs?
2) Using P(Zโค2)=0.9772, what percent of babies weigh less than 9.9 lbs? (Express as a number, e.g., 97.72)
3) The 84th percentile has zโ1. What is the 84th percentile weight? (in lbs, one decimal)
YโผN(a+bฮผ,โฃbโฃฯ)
Example: Temperature in Celsius is CโผN(20,5). In Fahrenheit: F=32+1.8C
FโผN(32+1.8(20),;1.8(5))=N(68,9)
Sum of Independent Normal RVs
If XโผN(muXโ,sigmaXโ) and YโผN(muYโ,sigmaYโ) are independent:
X+YโผN(muXโ+muYโ,sigmaX2โ+sigmaY2โ)
XโYโผN(muXโโmuYโ,sigmaX2โ+sigmaY2โ)
โ ๏ธ Variances add for both sums AND differences. Standard deviations do NOT add directly.
Example: Coffee fill XโผN(12,0.3) oz, cream YโผN(1,0.1) oz.
X+YโผN(13,0.09+0.01โ)=N(13,
Combining Normal Variables ๐งฎ
Package weights: XโผN(50,4) lbs. Packing material: YโผN(2,0.5) lbs (independent).
1) Mean total weight E(X+Y)=?
2) Variance of total weight Var(X+Y)=sigmaX2โ+?
3) SD of total weight = Var(X+Y)โ, rounded to 2 decimal places.
/
ฯ
Use the table or calculator to find probabilitiesFor percentiles: work backward from probability to z to x
Worked Example
Problem: A machine fills cereal boxes with ฮผ=368 g and ฯ=4 g. What proportion of boxes have less than 360 g?
- z=(360โ368)/4=โ8/4=โ2
- P(Zโคโ2)=0.0228
- About 2.28% of boxes are underfilled.
Follow-up: What weight is exceeded by 90% of boxes?
- "Exceeded by 90%" means 10th percentile (10% are below)
- z=โ1.28 (from table)
- x=368+(โ1.28)(4)=368โ5.12=362.88 g
x=ฮผ+zฯ
| Convert from z-score back to original units |
| P(aโคZโคb)=P(Zโคb)โP(Zโคa) | Find probability between two values |
| $Y = a + bX \Rightarrow N(a+b\mu, | b |
| X+YโN(muXโ+muYโ,sigmaX2โ+sigmaY2โ) | Sum of independent normals |
Common z-Values to Know
| Confidence Level | z* |
|---|
| 90% | 1.645 |
| 95% | 1.960 |
| 99% | 2.576 |
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